Change is good, it is growth, it is the opposite of death

I’m so torn in commenting on the energy for change in Iran.  This article got me there finally. 

Gauging Obama in Iran - NYTimes.com

This isn’t George’s or Obama’s country, it’s ours:

"On one side, a handful of supporters of President Bush said Iranian protesters had taken to the streets because they were emboldened by President Bush’s pro-democracy stance, and the example of Shiite democracy he set up in Iraq. On the other side, some of President Obama’s backers countered that the mere election of Barack Obama in the United States had galvanized reformers in Iran to demand change."

This is what makes America great - while I don’t agree with many of the approaches and policies of our current administration I accept his election and love my constitution and country.  For no other country can have such debate, transformation and consideration for freedom.  The fringe in our country is simply the fringe  - while it rules in other countries as there is no mechanism for changing leadership so.  Look at what we have done. This is why the world loves Americans, and what our constitution represents. 

Why hate Steve Job’s for getting a liver transplant?

So Jobs has been in Memphis, TN for a while now, it seems.  A blog posted this speculation months ago, an update appears there now:  

Steve Jobs May be in Memphis

"Apple CEO Steve Jobs lives at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in a swank part of downtown Memphis in a yellow house with white trim and a pool in the backyard. Or maybe he doesn’t."

Many articles like this one in the NYTimes about Jobs’ liver transplant.  

Apple Chief Reportedly Had Liver Transplant - NYTimes.com

Most have been without much information and much reference to direct sources.  The reader comments on these articles show that the topic inspires incredible, irrational passion for some.  They have no idea how long he was waiting or really why it was done. Or really if it was done. They simply assume. Other articles speculate on the timing of the news release in relation to the new iPhone 3G S and "distraction".  Maybe but who really knows?

I was particularly disappointed in the extrapolation of this event  to be the manifestation of the common social challenges we have in medical treatment and the plight of the poor.   Some even seem to “hate” him for his wealth and success. To trash the iPod, the Mac and the things Apple create as "useless gadgets." I don’t get this scorn. Speculation on time to get a liver has led many to this odd spew against capitalism and an entrepreneur that has created more jobs and wealth to so many people. My life is easier, my investments healthier, my ability to give to charity more likely because of the tools he has in part created as part of Apple, his ability to inspire me to invest in his company.

Without companies like Apple or the people who create them we would not be the country we are. And if you don’t like this country or the capitalism that created it, then you really don’t get it. Move to Cuba or China. Oh, wait, they are changing too.  I expect that it’s all of our responsibility to create a better way for people to get healthcare in the US. I’ll wait for the article that uncovers his pay-offs to Memphis hospitals and the donor with the cash that saved him to make speculation. The reality of it is unknown so all of this speculation is based on emotion, not facts. I’m sorry that some are self described “poor and insolvable,” but I believe the angry are bitter and missing the idea that he wasn’t raised with a silver spoon or given any of this. I value every life, even the ones that I admit I sometimes envy. I’m sorry for these angry souls’ distress and I hope that they find something in the news that inspires them to build a small business, find work or a social organization to help. But this may not be the place to look for it. The key is to let the billionaires in these pages inspire you and with that inspiration help you find a way out of the poverty of the mind as well as the poverty of the wallet.

Obama on Banking, the Economy and Fixing vs. Controlling

Today’s rant - spurred on by a friend’s insightful rant on an email list I maintain.  Jack made some very poignant comments about the economic state we are in and I wrote the following response - edited for clarity in this forum. 

Investment in infrastructure and the military always works.  Bush chose to blow up another country to get rid of our old stuff to buy new stuff.  A good arms race gave us the 50’s - not a bad time to be alive - and this along with NASA lead to really cool technology.   I’m a little worried that Obama may not buy new stuff (then we will get blown up and it doesn’t matter does it). If he spends money on bridges and power plants that is okay too.  The one thing I like about France is their embracing nuclear power (well two things - I dig their women too, maybe three - their love of art.. but that’s it).  We should do that. But we don’t need to prop up old industries that nobody wants to work at for the wages they pay. We don’t have a billion Chinese that are willing to work for peanuts to pay for our car companies (its complex - another rant).  Further, I don’t think healthcare reform or investing in education will pump up the economy - that’s all feel good politics.  Don’t mix the two

Hamas Ends Cease-Fire - NYTimes.com

Good article in the NYT today that points out - Hamas ended its six-month cease-fire on Dec. 19.

Not Israel.  But the world has a short memory.  The world will forget that Hamas has launched over 10,000 rockets into Israel since 2001. That they are smuggling arms in from Egypt every day preparing for a ground war.  The article points out that Hamas wants the "status as the Palestinians’ principal resistance. Its secular rival, Fatah, sits on the sidelines, marginal to the violence."

News Analysis - For Hamas, Logic Led to Cease-Fire’s End - NYTimes.com

"The key issue is whether Palestinians will blame Israel for raining fire down upon them, as Hamas hopes. Or blame Hamas for provoking it, as Fatah, Israel and its Western allies hope."

"Right now Palestinians are blaming Israel, loudly."

Koran from Muhammad or God; Torah from Babylonian Jews or God?

Read an interesting article in today’s New York Times Magazine (December 7, 2008; page 24 Who Wrote the Koran?) about a theological reformer challenges those who claim to speak for Islam. By Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabarr.  Abdulkarim Sorush is Iran’s leading public intellectual, he is a scholar of Islamic theology and was Ayatollah Khomeini’s man for bringing Islam back to Iran. But he is a smart guy and he really studied what he was doing - and consequently asked people to think, not just follow.  Much like the true Rabbi’s and Scholars of ancient Hebrew texts and the Torah.  As a Reform Jew I do believe that the Torah reflects what God wants us to live our lives - but through ancient stories passed down from generation to generation.  There are some that believe the Torah was directly given to us by God and others who believe that the stories were first written down in Ancient Babylon to unite and help the Jews from becoming assimilated into the Babylonian culture. Its one thing to come out of a cave and say "I have found the word of God - see we weren’t kidding" and another to say  "you have to do this because I say its the right way to live your life." Same for the Koran according to Sorush.  As written in the article:

"The recent controversey began about eight months ago, after Soroush spoke with a Dutch reporter about on of Islam’s most sensitve issues: the divine origin of the Koran. Muslims have long believed that their holy book was transmitted word for word by God through the Prophet Muhammad. In the interview, however, Sorush made explicit his alternative belief that the Koran was a"prophetic experience." He told me that the Prophet "was at the same time the receiver and the producer of the Koran or, if you will, the subject and the object of the revelation."

 Its pretty a conversation I have all the time - you can argue against divine creation of all that we are "Adam and Eve" or you can say Darwin was right.  Or you can believe what I believe in that Darwin was right but the hand of God was involved every step of the way.  So that as a Reform Jew - I do think these very smart Rabbi’s or Priests or whomever, did write down the Torah very carefully and said "this is the word of God" to get people emotionally involved.  The less intelligent were hooked as they needed guidance and a way to follow without thought, the intelligent who had morals and a grasp on social reality said - this is a good way to teach.

So I’ve just insulted my friends who are Orthodox, no way - they are the ones who study and question the most - it is the way of our people, and the way of Islamic scholars for thousands of years. It is only fear and control that make for tyrannical rule. The kind of rule they needed at the time of Mohammad to unite the Arabs, the kind they needed in ancient Israel to unite the Jews and the kind they needed in ancient Rome to re-unite the Roman Empire to become the Holy Roman Empire.  I’m equally insulting all religious believers who cling to a patriarchal hierarchy of God-King-Man (or God-Pope-Bishop-King-Man; or God-Ayatollah-President-Man; or God-Priest-King-Man).  We don’t need a king in a democracy so we don’t need religion in government.  Its what this country was built on - not a Godless nation, a nation under God - but with liberty and justice for all.  With the hand of God guiding us along - but not ruling over us. I believe God planned all along to let us find our own way - he just gave us the tools (Torah, Bible, Koran or whatever) to make sure we stay on the right path. 

Auto Makers Force Bailout Issue - WSJ.com

Auto Makers Force Bailout Issue - WSJ.com

Aside from questions about the wisdom of government intervention or putting taxpayer money at risk, bailing out Detroit could put Washington in the position of subsidizing job losses. The car makers have at least 10 assembly plants more than they need to meet demand, according to Oliver Wyman Consulting. That translates to roughly 30,000 factory jobs plus significant numbers of engineers and other salaried personnel. GM estimates it needs to slash its salaried-employee costs in North America by 30%. Car makers would likely use federal money to subsidize these job cuts, buying out older workers to make room for new, lower paid replacements. United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger has said more union concessions are out of the question, union lobbyist Alan Reuther said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires on Friday. "We feel we’ve already stepped up" by giving ground last year on future workers’ pay and benefits and retiree health care, Mr. Reuther said. The UAW wants assurances a bailout would help secure its members’ retirement and health-care benefits.  READ MORE on WSJ.com

Pelosi, Reid Press for TARP Aid for Auto Industry - WSJ.com

Pelosi, Reid Press for TARP Aid for Auto Industry - WSJ.com

"It was not set up for anything else," said Bush spokesman Tony Fratto, noting the only assistance authorized by Congress for the auto industry is a $25 billion loan package meant to help the industry retool to meet higher fuel economy standards….

…Democratic congressional leaders are considering convening a lame-duck session of Congress later this month to deal with economic concerns. The session could be used to enact a short-term stimulus package or to approve assistance for auto makers. But the Democratic leadership is not inclined to act, absent a signal from the White House that Mr. Bush would be willing to sign a bill.

 China Announces Major Stimulus Plan - WSJ.com

On the other side of the world China is worrying about our reduction in spending and buying.  So while we have the same problem for our inferior auto production companies - they have it for all the factories and cascading down, the infrastructure development companies that support all the growth. But instead of supporting dying industry, they will put it directly into the economy and the infrastructure:

China’s plan appears to be comparable in size. In a statement announcing the plan, China’s State Council said it would deliver 120 billion yuan ($18 billion) of new spending in the last quarter of this year alone. The State Council — effectively China’s cabinet — estimated that would drive an additional increase of 400 billion yuan in local and private-sector investment throughout the economy.

China’s government is also making plans for new spending in areas such as low-cost housing, road and rail infrastructure, agricultural subsidies, health care and social welfare over the next two years…

…The new measures include an expected revamping of China’s value-added tax system to allow all companies operating in China to deduct spending on capital equipment. The government estimated the new system, which is already in place in some provinces, would save companies a total of 120 billion yuan when fully rolled out. The government has recently been phasing out tax breaks specifically for foreign companies to invest in China and didn’t mention any such measures as part of the stimulus…

…The government is presenting the program as an opportunity to do many things that would be worth doing anyway. Those include helping companies upgrade to higher-tech equipment, improving irrigation in rural areas, raising pensions and social-security payments, and improving water and waste treatment in crowded cities.

HENRYs - the “Rich?”

Obscure Tax Breaks Increase Cost of Financial Rescue - WSJ.com

Obscure Tax Breaks Increase Cost of Financial Rescue - WSJ.com The biggest beneficiary so far is likely to be Wells Fargo. The big San Francisco-based bank recently agreed to buy Wachovia Corp. of Charlotte, N.C., which has been hammered by huge losses on mortgage-related securities and loans. Wells Fargo has said it expects to take $74 billion in write-downs on the Wachovia portfolio.

Obamas 95% Illusion - WSJ.com

Its all about getting elected - this won’t stimulate the economy - it will kill productivity. Reminds me of the nice Greek neighbor I met when visiting the family house in Lemnos. He was "on disability" so he worked the land for food and collected his disability check (he was technically a construction worker). It didn’t pay to go back to work even after he got well.

From "Obamas 95% Illusion" - WSJ.com - October 13, 2008 Review & Outlook - Opinion

One of Barack Obama’s most potent campaign claims is that he’ll cut taxes for no less than 95% of "working families." He’s even promising to cut taxes enough that the government’s tax share of GDP will be no more than 18.2% — which is lower than it is today.

It’s a clever pitch, because it lets him pose as a middle-class tax cutter while disguising that he’s also proposing one of the largest tax increases ever on the other 5%. But how does he conjure this miracle, especially since more than a third of all Americans already pay no income taxes at all? There are several sleights of hand, but the most creative is to redefine the meaning of "tax cut."

For the Obama Democrats, a tax cut is no longer letting you keep more of what you earn. In their lexicon, a tax cut includes tens of billions of dollars in government handouts that are disguised by the phrase "tax credit." Mr. Obama is proposing to create or expand no fewer than seven such credits for individuals:

- A $500 tax credit ($1,000 a couple) to "make work pay" that phases out at income of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 per couple.

- A $4,000 tax credit for college tuition.

- A 10% mortgage interest tax credit (on top of the existing mortgage interest deduction and other housing subsidies).

- A "savings" tax credit of 50% up to $1,000.

- An expansion of the earned-income tax credit that would allow single workers to receive as much as $555 a year, up from $175 now, and give these workers up to $1,110 if they are paying child support.

- A child care credit of 50% up to $6,000 of expenses a year.

- A "clean car" tax credit of up to $7,000 on the purchase of certain vehicles.

Here’s the political catch. All but the clean car credit would be "refundable," which is Washington-speak for the fact that you can receive these checks even if you have no income-tax liability. In other words, they are an income transfer — a federal check — from taxpayers to nontaxpayers. Once upon a time we called this "welfare," or in George McGovern’s 1972 campaign a "Demogrant." Mr. Obama’s genius is to call it a tax cut.

The Tax Foundation estimates that under the Obama plan 63 million Americans, or 44% of all tax filers, would have no income tax liability and most of those would get a check from the IRS each year. The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis estimates that by 2011, under the Obama plan, an additional 10 million filers would pay zero taxes while cashing checks from the IRS.

The total annual expenditures on refundable "tax credits" would rise over the next 10 years by $647 billion to $1.054 trillion, according to the Tax Policy Center. This means that the tax-credit welfare state would soon cost four times actual cash welfare. By redefining such income payments as "tax credits," the Obama campaign also redefines them away as a tax share of GDP. Presto, the federal tax burden looks much smaller than it really is.

The political left defends "refundability" on grounds that these payments help to offset the payroll tax. And that was at least plausible when the only major refundable credit was the earned-income tax credit. Taken together, however, these tax credit payments would exceed payroll levies for most low-income workers.

It is also true that John McCain proposes a refundable tax credit — his $5,000 to help individuals buy health insurance. We’ve written before that we prefer a tax deduction for individual health care, rather than a credit. But the big difference with Mr. Obama is that Mr. McCain’s proposal replaces the tax subsidy for employer-sponsored health insurance that individuals don’t now receive if they buy on their own. It merely changes the nature of the tax subsidy; it doesn’t create a new one.

There’s another catch: Because Mr. Obama’s tax credits are phased out as incomes rise, they impose a huge "marginal" tax rate increase on low-income workers. The marginal tax rate refers to the rate on the next dollar of income earned. As the nearby chart illustrates, the marginal rate for millions of low- and middle-income workers would spike as they earn more income.

Some families with an income of $40,000 could lose up to 40 cents in vanishing credits for every additional dollar earned from working overtime or taking a new job. As public policy, this is contradictory. The tax credits are sold in the name of "making work pay," but in practice they can be a disincentive to working harder, especially if you’re a lower-income couple getting raises of $1,000 or $2,000 a year. One mystery — among many — of the McCain campaign is why it has allowed Mr. Obama’s 95% illusion to go unanswered.